India Today-Axis My India exit poll: Congress to have edge over rivals, to win 106-118 seats in Karnataka

A ballot of polls put the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in advance in 107 seats and the Indian National Congress (INC) in 85. This remains brief of the halfway mark of 112 seats. The state looks headed for a hung Assembly though several polls placed the BJP beforehand of the Congress albeit quick of a clear majority. The exception become the Times Now-Chanakya ballot which gave the BJP a clear majority of a hundred and twenty seats and the Congress seventy three. The JD(S) was left with just 26 seats. There was some consensus on the range of seats the JD(S) could win with all pollsters predicting its wide variety of seats inside the place of 30 . This would positioned former high minister HD Deve Gowda and previous leader minister Kumaraswamy inside the plum role to play the role of kingmaker. Karnataka started balloting for 222 of its 224 seats in the 15th Assembly at 7 am on Saturday. The voter turnout by the time polling closed at 6 pm was 70% marginally down from seventy one.45% in 2013. Times Now-VMR gave the BJP 80-ninety three seats and the INC 90-103. India Today-Axis My India gave INC the biggest lead at 106-118 seats leaving the BJP with seventy nine-92 seats. The Axis My India survey put INC s vote percentage at 39% a soar from 36.5% inside the 2013 Assembly elections. Republic TV-C Voter pegged the BJP vote proportion at 40.9% a massive surge from 19.Eight% in 2013 while the celebration become a divided residence. The C-Voter poll gave the BJP ninety seven-109 seats and the Congress 87-ninety nine seats and an advanced vote percentage of 39%. Among polls through regional channels Suvarna News projected the Congress mopping up 106-118 seats and the BJP seventy eight-82. Digvijaya News placed the BJP ahead with 103-107 seats and gave the Congress 76-80. It gave the JD(S) 31-35 seats. Elections for 2 Assembly seats had been postponed. Polling inside the Rajarajeswari Nagar constituency turned into deferred to May 28 after near 10 000 voter ID playing cards had been discovered in one condo. The effects would be introduced on May 31. Polling inside the Jayanagar seat in south Bangalore has also been cast off attributable to the dying of BJP candidate BN Vijaya Kumar on May 4 New Delhi thirteen 2018 nine:11:32 am Karnataka Assembly Elections 2018: Polling became held in 222 constituencies of the 224-member Assembly as elections in two constituencies Jayanagara and Rajrajeshwari have been countermanded. As balloting ended in Karnataka on Saturday six out of eight foremost exit polls aired by six country wide tv channels and one nearby channel expected that the BJP might get the largest variety of seats in the new meeting. Seven polls anticipated a hung assembly with neither the BJP nor the Congress attending to the simple majority mark of 112 seats. All those polls advised that the JD(S) would be kingmaker with the party anticipated to get among 20 and 40 seats. The predictions have been made for 222 of the 224 seats within the meeting. Voting in Bengaluru s Rajarajeshwari Nagar seat turned into deferred to May 28 after nine 896 voter ID cards were found in a city flat in advance of Saturday s vote casting. Election for the Jayanagar seat become cast off following the death of the BJP candidate. The ABP-C Voter NewsX-CNX Republic-Jan ki Baat and News Nation exit polls predicted the BJP could be the largest birthday party in the meeting. A similar prediction become made by using the regional Dighvijay-Vijayawani survey. READ two exit polls. One Times Now-VMR gave the Congress a slim lead; the opposite Times Now-Today s Chanakya gave the BJP a clear majority. The India Today-Axis go out poll stated the Congress would be the single biggest birthday party. The ABP-C Voter survey expected 104-116 seats for the BJP accompanied by means of 83-94 for the Congress and 20-29 for the JD(S). NewsX-CNX expected 102-a hundred and ten seats for the BJP 72-seventy eight for the Congress 35-39 for the JD (S) and three-five for others. The Republic-Jan ki Baat ballot said the BJP might get 104 Congress seventy eight JD(S) 37 and others 3. The Times Now-Chanakya ballot stated the BJP could get a hundred and twenty seats. This became the best poll that anticipated a majority for any birthday celebration. The Congress Times Now-Chanakya said could get 73 JD(S) 26 and others three. According to Times Now-VMR however the Congress gets 97 seats and the BJP ninety four. The JD(S) gets 28 and others 3 it expected. The News Nation ballot expected ninety nine-108 for the BJP seventy five-eighty four for the Congress 31-forty for the JD(S) and 3-7 for others. Dighvijay-Vijayawani gave 103-107 seats to the BJP seventy six-80 to the Congress 31-35 to the JD(S) and 4-eight to others. The India Today-Axis poll become the most effective one to are expecting victory for the Congress. The ruling birthday celebration gets between 106 and 118 seats it stated accompanied with the aid of the BJP with 79-ninety two JD(S) with 22-30 and others with 1-four. CM Siddaramaiah attacked the BJP leader ministerial nominee and PM Modi on Saturday. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah said he was confident that the Congress might retain strength. He https://ask.fm/russelparvezs had said earlier inside the day that the BJP s leader ministerial candidate B S Yeddyurappa was mentally disturbed to have claimed that the BJP could shape the subsequent authorities. Siddaramaiah additionally attacked Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP alleging that income-tax raids had been ordered against Congress employees and properly-wishers out of desperation because the BJP turned into sure to lose. In 2013 the Congress had received 122 seats. The BJP and the JD(S) were given 40 seats each at the same time as Yeddyurappa s then Karnataka Jantha Paksha were given 6 seats and B Sriramulu s Badavara Shramikara Raitara Congress Party bagged 4. For all of the trendy Elections News down load Indian Express App Tags: Exit polls Karnataka Assembly Election 2018 Share your thoughts Written by way of Updated: May 12 2018 8:forty five:00 am Karnataka will vote on may additionally 12 to determine the fortunes of the 3 fundamental events inside the nation BJP Congress and JD(S). (Express Photo of Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah) That Karnataka is an essential election is a foregone conclusion. How essential and how asymmetrically extraordinary the election implications are for the two fundamental contenders BJP and Congress (INC) is discussed below. If the Congress wins in Karnataka it may rightfully declare that the 2014 countrywide election and UP 2017 had been two troughs from where it is manfully bouncing returned. It may be capable of argue particularly convincingly that the worst is over and that Rahul Gandhi is rising as a viable chief for the Congress and a possible alternative for the Indian electorate in 2019. If the Congress receives the most wide variety of seats however doesn t form the authorities (that is BJP and JDS shape a coalition) the Congress victory would now not be as sweet however it is able to live to fight another day in particular in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and possibly even in Chhattisgarh. But it'd were weakened specifically relative to its recent top after the BJP s losses in Gorakhpur and the bypolls in Rajasthan. But what is going to probably occur if the Congress is in 2d location in terms of seats and that BJP is near a majority on its very own (our most likely forecast)? One of the statistical statistics about this 3-celebration combat is that if the JDS performs as expected by means of definitely all of the opinion polls (round 30 seats but 10 much less than what it received in 2013) then the only way that a celebration can win outright is if it wins between 50 to ninety per cent more seats than the second one-placed celebration. The power of the Karnataka meeting is 224 seats and independents are expected to get round 6 seats. A majority is 113 seats and https://arjunrampaalz.wufoo.com/forms/fem-avervaganden-nar-du-kaper-fastigheter-i-maryla/ if JDS obtains 30 then what's left for the second located birthday celebration is (224-6-113-30) or 75 seats. This implies a ratio of seats (#1/#2) as 113/75 or 1.5. Now allow us to tweak the seat shares just a little bit. Assume the triumphing birthday party receives a hundred and twenty seats and JDS receives 35; the second one party will attain 64 seats; the above ratio jumps from 1.Five to at least one.Nine. The point of this numerical exercising is to emphasise the non-linearity of predicted effects. And it's miles a rare election this is linear close and absolutely predicted! If the Congress is in second location as our calculations recommend it'll be and if the BJP wins a hundred and twenty seats and Congress less than 70 seats what occurs to the Congress s (mis)fortunes going forward? There has been a concerted expectation in particular in Congress quarters that the tide has grew to become and that Rahul Gandhi is a transformed and dynamic chief. A awful showing in Karnataka would suggest that the Congress will move right into a re-think of expectations and possibly even the management of the Gandhi family. It is easy to accumulate expectancies and rally the devoted (and those at the margin) when you have won bypolls. It is pretty any other assignment to make accept as true with that with only states under your belt (one Punjab with 13 seats and a Union Territory Puducherry with 1 seat) which you are a contender (with apologies to Marlon Brando in On the Waterfront I coulda been a contender ). One additional factor in our travels in Karnataka with the visiting band of limousine liberals (with apologies to gipsies) we found affordable aid for JDS and Congress in particular inside the south (round Mysore). But and this is a relevant but numerous JDS and Congress supporters said they might be balloting for the local management in the meeting election however could be voting for BJP sorry Modi within the country wide election. If one goes past the countrywide English dailies it does appear that Modi is very popular; the reputed Pew survey indicates https://www.interspire.com/forum/member.php?u=544994 that Modi has retained his high reputation rankings in the mid 80s! So even in the small threat that Congress wins a majority it'll most effective be a small dent in Modi s enchantment. Curiously one very applicable factor of the Karnataka election has no longer been emphasised with the aid of both the pollsters or analysts. What all of us recognize is that each BJP and the JDS received forty seats apiece inside the 2013 election and the Congress received 122 seats. But how many of us realize that if the 2013 election is adjusted for BJP allies then the election changed into indeed very near 83 seats for the BJP to Congress s 89 and JDS s 31. In different words the JDS lost most effective 9 seats while the BJP fought as one unit and the INC lost 33 seats. Who are these mysterious allies that we've got made the adjustment for? Well none other than former BJP Chief Minister Yeddyurappa who had shaped his personal birthday party in 2012 (after being thrown out of the BJP) and fought the 2013 election as chief of the KJP (Karnataka Janata Paksha). In addition B Sriramulu the leader of the small BHRC birthday celebration got here out in aid of the BJP in 2014. If the votes of those allies are brought to the 2013 BJP vote (this assumes that a KJP and BHRC voter will vote for the BJP rather than INC or JDS an inexpensive assumption) then the 2013 election appears as BJP 32.Four in step with cent of the vote and INC slightly beforehand at 36.6 consistent with cent. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election the BJP expanded its proportion of the vote by using 10 ppt (the Modi effect) and multiplied its seat tally to 132 meeting constituencies. (Data are available at the meeting constituency degree for the country wide election). This extra 10 ppts brought 49 seats to the BJP tally. A nicely-documented end result around the world is that the political celebration that wins the country wide election loses in subsequent local elections. A typical loss percentage for India is around 4-6 ppt. Which means that with a 5 according to cent loss in vote share from the 2014 Lok Sabha election the BJP can lose 25 seats this is attain 107 seats in 2018. A five in step with cent loss inside the BJP vote-proportion over 2014 method that the BJP will reap 38 per cent of the vote no longer very some distance from the 35 in line with cent vote share envisaged by way of the average opinion ballot . This is a again of the envelope calculation. More delicate fashions (and with a bit of luck extra accurate) converge on the BJP obtaining seats in the variety 107-125 or on a median 116 seats. The respective seat shares of the Congress can not be anticipated in as trustworthy a fashion. But the JDS seat percentage round 25-30 looks possibly. Which implies that the Congress obtains around seventy four seats the fourth lowest (and identical to) what Congress received within the first assembly election in 1952. One of my favorite forecaster sayings is the following: Forecast often and constantly remind human beings when you are proper. If I am close to correct I will come lower back to remind; if I am drastically wrong I will work closer to enhancing the models and do so in hiding! The writer is senior India analyst at Observatory Group a New York-based totally macro coverage advisory group contributing editor The Indian Express and part-time member of the PM s Economic Advisory Council. Views are personal For all of the latest Opinion News down load Indian Express App More From Surjit S Bhalla Robust task growth no longer faux information The satisfactory macro-monetary overall performance ever in India became received in 2014-18. Modi s project remains the reining in of the enemies inside... No Proof Required: Plagiarism on the World Bank? At a minimal the World Bank is responsible of following the no longer so scholarly way of life of Western students to disregard scholarship from some place else even when Goebbels and faux information spot the difference The Opposition is making an attempt to create an trade narrative approximately the political and financial reality under the Modi government... Tags: Bharatiya Janata Party Indian https://thefastdiet.co.uk/forums/users/shawshaw-kshaw-atgmail-com/ National Congress Karnataka Assembly Election 2018 Share your mind New Delhi: A group comprising alumni of Aligarh Muslim University Jamia Millia Islamia Jamia Hamdard and others demanded a countrywide policy on Partition to fix blame on those responsible. Calling itself Minority University s Alumni Front the group said the authorities should pop out with a white paper on it so there may be readability approximately the records of Partition to determine whose photos are to be eliminated . The individuals claimed the current mischief at AMU where college students clashed with right-wing activists and the ruckus at Jamia had been attempts to break minority establishments. Basir Ahmed Khan of the group said the Jinnah portrait row changed into a diversionary tactic keeping in mind the drawing close Kairana bypolls and Karnataka elections. The portrait has been there for closing eighty years. It is part of history and nobody can exchange it said Khan the previous seasoned-vice chancellor of Ignou and former president of AMU Students Union. Alluding to Karachi Chamber of Commerce s foundation stone which nonetheless holds the name of Mahatma Gandhi Khan opined that leaders of both the international locations have to be respected as they're a part of history. He additionally said that Pakistan got here into being by a tripartite % however handiest Jinnah is being blamed for it. During the Bangladesh (1971) situation there has been a assembly of the UN Security Council in New York. There the overseas minister of India Sardar Swaran Singh said Pakistan got here into existence by using distinctive feature of a % amongst 3 events the British government Indian National Congress and All India Muslim League said Khan. Irfan Ullah ex-president of AMUSU added that the worst patients of Partition had been the minorities. On the one hand the PM says that he desires to see Muslims with the Koran and the pc in their palms but at the identical time there is an try to near down minority establishments by way of taking away our minority person Khan stated. The alumni members demanded that the HRD ministry issue a statement and the President who is also the visitor of the university intervene and help the minority status of the organization. New Delhi: The Supreme Court will these days pay attention Rashtriya Hindu Sena chief Pramod Muthalik s plea alleging that the Congress birthday party in its election manifesto in Karnataka was seeking votes inside the name of faith.A bench comprising Chief Justice Dipak Misra and Justices A M Khanwilkar and D Y Chandrachud these days agreed to pay attention Pramod Muthalik s plea which additionally sought directions to the Election Commission to delete the Congress birthday celebration s alleged enchantment in its manifesto.Advocate Vishnu Jain referred to the matter for urgent listing and said there has been a seven-judge bench judgment which prohibited in search of of votes within the call of faith. Issue a path commanding the Election Commission of India to exercising its powers and ensure that Indian National Congress deletes the attraction to vote on non secular basis made underneath the heading Social justice -strengthening the social cloth for easy development in sub-heading make certain right to equality taking place at pages 36 and 37 of the election manifesto issued for general election for Karnataka Legislative Assembly 2018 earlier than begin of polling the plea said.Pramod Muthalik s petition also seeks to deal with the candidates of the Congress birthday party as disqualified to contest the election and to strike off their names from the poll papers.Under the sub-heading ensure right to equality within the manifesto released on April 27 the Congress proposes to improve social and economic status of minorities with the aid of allocating more finances for their welfare programmes.Besides an offer to establish Madrasa Board it talks approximately Christian improvement board to manage the affairs of Christian network. It also proposes to construct 1000 Maulana Azad schools inside the kingdom.In the relevant pages the Congress also guarantees an coverage scheme for fitness and kids s schooling of minority auto and taxi drivers within the manifesto. It also speaks of upgrading Morarji Desai Schools with hostels for ladies beneath the sub-heading of the make sure proper to equality of the Congress manifesto.The petition of the proper-wing Rashtriya Hindu Sena chief says problem a route that Indian National Congress by using making an enchantment on religious foundation by issuing election manifesto of the party on April 27 2018 for Karnataka Legislative Assembly 2018 has violated the provisions of section 123(three) of Representation of People Act and all of the candidates set up by using the celebration has incurred disqualification to contest the stated election. CommentsIt additionally sought derecognising the Congress as a country wide birthday party.The meeting election in Karnataka is slated for May 12 and the outcomes scheduled to be introduced on May 15.